2030 ?
13th April, 2029. A huge asteroid Apophis, more than 1000 feet in diameter will pass by the Earth at a close prproximity. if it hits the earth it will bring about such a devastation which has never been seen before in human history. compared to the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, this will release 1 million times more energy. there will be tsunami waves of hundreds of metres. and entire cities will be wiped out. but not only that, on 12th July 2030 another asteroids can collide with the earth. there is a 72% chance of this collision. nasa has already issued an alert and has started its planetary defence exercises.
How much truth is there is such news ?
Which asteroids pose the most danger for Earth ?
What is NASA plan's ?
Asteroids are also called Planetoids. because they are like small planets. they are basically some huge pieces of rocks that are orbiting in space. their diametre can be as small as 10-20 metres and as big as 100 to 200 kilometres. the smallest existing asteroid we've discovered is only 2 meters wide and the biggest is called ceres with a diameter of 940 kilometres. most of the asteroids in our solar system are found in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter. it house's million of asteroids but sometimes these asteroids move away from this belt and get quite close to the earth. in such cases, these are known as Near Earth Objects. NEOs are not just asteroids, they can be comets, meteors, and meteorites.
what is the difference between them?
Basically, all of them are just pieces of rocks moving through space but the way we define them, is different for each. like asteroids are made of rocks and metals. comets are made of ice, rocks, and dust. they are known as Dirty Snowballs too. asteroids are found between Mars and Jupiter in the asteroid belt. comets are found in the Kuiper belt. this belt lies before neptune, quite far from our sun. when comets move in space, which asteroids don't. typically, comets can be large too, with a diametre of 10 km. and whenever a comet passes by earth, it can be easily seen with the naked eye. but to see asteroids, telescopes are needed is most cases. in terms of danger posed to us, a comet is far more dangerous than an asteroid. because first, a comet travels at twice the speed of an asteroid. and second the warning time is shorter. a comet may suddenly appear and collide with the Earth, and unfortunately, we won't find out about it for a long time. a Meteoroid is a small piece of an asteroid and comet. when a meteoroid gets closer to the earth and enters our atmosphere, we call it a meteor. when that happens, it burns very quickly and we see a streak of light. it is also known as a shooting star and some of you might have seen it yourself. when this happens in large numbers, it is called a meteor shower. and if a piece of meteor, travels through our atmosphere and falls on the earth, it is called a meteorite.
However, for us, the important thing is are the NEOs. the asteroids and comets that pass by the earth. those posing considerable risk of crashing on the earth and bringing about the end of our world. this is a justified concern because this happened 66 million years ago to the dinosaurs. if they can go extinct, so can we. apophis asteroid with a diametre of more than 1,000 feet does really exist. and on 13th April 2029, this asteroid will pass by very close to the earth. only 30,000 km away. many geostationary satellites are farther away than this. 5 years later, the day this asteroid will pass by the earth you wont need a telescope to see it. you will be able to see it with your eyes at night.
What are the chances of this asteroid actually colliding with earth ?
answer : 0%
This asteroid was discovered in 2004. after which, there was quite an uproar all over the world. because according to the initial observations, they claimed that there was a 2.7% chance of this asteroid colliding with the earth in 2029. even though this 2.7% chance wasn't very significant. it basically meant that there's a 97% chance that it won't collide but when the consequences can be so devastating, even a 2% chance can be terrifying. that's why in those years, this asteroid was called the city killer, the most dangerous asteroid. this was the origin of it's name apophis. In Egyptian mythology, Apophis is a giant snake which destroys evrything. it is also Known as the God of Chaos but the good news is that after further observations of this asteroid by the scientists, they found that in reality, it has a 0% chance of colliding with the Earth. for a few years scientists thought that though it won't collide in 2029, when it'd come closer to Earth the next time, it might be dengerous. like in 2036 and 2068. because when it would pass by earth in 2029, it would through a keyhole area. in space, those places are said to be Keyholes that is so close to the earth, where a passing asteroid is affected by Earth's gravitational force. when the asteroid comes close to earth in 2029, it will pass through a Keyhole region, which will change its orbit. due to Earth's gravity, the asteroid's orbit will change, which will increase the risk in 2036. scientists were afraid of this at one time, but today, this threat has been debunked. NASA has confidently stated that in the next 100 years, the asteroids will not collide with the earth. this is why, it has been removed from the risk list of near earth object. you might be surprised at this. to know that there is a risk list. of course, there is. space agencies around the world have made a risk list of the most dangerous asteroids in the near future. for example, on the European space agency's website, look at this risk list. it was only because of Data Science that we can predict the paths of the asteroids so accurately and not only in space exploration, data Science is used in many fields nowadays. Automobiles, finance, space exploration. this is why Data Science has now become one of the most lucrative career options.
First: is the 2023VD3 asteroid. the 2023 in the name tell us that this asteroid was discovered in 2023. this asteroid is quite small in size. it is only 11 to 24 metres wide. it might collide with earth on 8th November 2034. and the probability of collision is 1 in 387. that is, in percentage, it has a 25% chance of colliding. this is a substantial chance actually. that is why it is placed at the top of the list. but because of its smaller size, it is not very dangerous. the chances are that even if it collides with earth, it will fall into a sea and ocean and somewhere with few people. It won't cause much damage. in 2013, there was a similar incident when in chelyabinsk, russia, the Chelyabinsk meteor blasted above the city. the diameter of the meteor was about 20 metres and a powerful shockwave was released. some buildings were damaged, some people were injured but thankfully, no lives were lost.
That only problem is that these are the asteroids that we have discovered so far. they may discover more asteroids in the future. but Comets don't have such a proper calculated trajectory. that is, we won't get a big warning window about comets. tomorrow, we may discover a new comet that many collide with the earth and for that we will have only 6-7 years to prepare. the detection systems on earth, work will most of the time, but sometimes they might not. I would like to tell you about 4 most popular detection projects.
1: LINEAR : Lincoln near earth astroid reserch. it was stated in 1996 by the US air force, NASA and MIT, in a joint collaboration.
2: CSS : Catalina sky survey. Established by the University of Arizona in 1998, it uses two big telescope.
3: PAN STARRS : Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System.
It is located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean in Hawaii and it uses the world's largest digital cameras to find asteroids.
4: ATLAS : asteroid terrestrial impact last alert system.
case all the other systems are unable to detect an asteroid, if an asteroid goes undetected by mistake, then this system will give us a last minute warning of a possible asteroid impact. evry night this system scans the sky twice to detect any danger.
So overall, Earth's defence system is quite brilliant and strong. but sometimes there might be some errors. like, sometimes small meteors remain undetected as they get closer and then collide with the earth. like the chelyabinsk meteon in February 2013. this 20 metre wide meteor was not detected by any system on time. that's why for such scenarios, a Civil Defence Component becomes crucial. NASA has talked about this on page 12 of their mock test report. if a small asteroid or meteor is about to crash somewhere international coordination is required at the right time, as well as the activation of the disaster management plans.
What will happen if a large asteroid is about to collide ?
There are three strategies to deal with it. first are the kinetic methods, the kinetic method is the only one that has been successfully tested in real life. in this, we send a spacecraft that collides with the asteroid and changes its orbit. the asteroid moves in a new orbit. this is a simple and effective method. its practical experiment was conducted two years ago in NASA double asteroid redirection test.
The same experiment A» is going to be conducted by China's National Space Agency next year. in 2025, they will have their spacecraft collide with a 30-metre-wide asteroid, and try to change its path.
First of all, in the next 100 years there are no big asteroids that have even a 0.01% chance of colliding with the Earth.
Secondly, our Earth's defence systems are becoming more advanced with time.
In the years 2028, NASA is planning to launch a space telescope named near earth object surveyor. it will be stationed outside Earth, to detect such asteroids so our detection systems will improve further. and thirdly, even if we find an asteroid that can collide with the earth, we already have adequate systems to stop it.
so stop believing in such fake news !
Thank you.....
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